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Post by honeybadger on Apr 8, 2020 20:54:48 GMT -5
I've stated here and other places that original estimations in all doomsday scenarios is always over the top. I also know the motives involved with various people/groups/industries who benefit from bad news. I'll leave that for others to think about.
I'm not going to make a political statement here so please, let's keep politics out of it. People can look back on everything I've said about Cv19 on this board.
At first the death toll was potentially going to be 2.2 million.......then the same model said it could be 500,000.....then 240,000....then last weak it was 93,000.......and yesterday, it was 60,000. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it reaches 48,000 by the end of summer. My guess is just as accurate as all the experts (most of whom are bureaucrats with motives).
I knew that the initial 2-3 week shutdown would never get us to 2.2 million.
I also said if we shutdown through april-may, we won't have companies to come back to.
I also said you will have more deaths from a total collapse of our economy than by this virus so if we truly care about human life we will get back to normal.
I also know that as human beings, we need activity, we need sunshine, we need social interaction, and kids need the life lessons learned from being part of a team win or lose.
Yes, CV19 will become annual like the flu, but this virus has been publicized so much by a media with ulterior motives, and that same media complex will demand the same shutdowns next year when this comes back like it will. Will we shutdown sports next winter if the normal flu hits with more severity than normal? That's a serious question, because the trend has been set. Will we?
My point is this: these clubs need to get back to soccer by the start of May. Sports will be starting back up in May. America needs normalcy. Our elderly need to see their families again.
I hope leaders of clubs happen to read this, and as long as the CV19 numbers gradually come down (remember, more ill be immune to it by may), have the guts to let these kids get back to doing this. Of course any parent who doesn't want to participate shouldn't have to.
By the end of April if people are back to work, and there are no youth sports, we are going to look mighty silly.
Just my opinion.
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Post by BubbleDad on Apr 8, 2020 21:57:56 GMT -5
Look. They gave extreme numbers in the case that Shelter in Place wasn't enforced.
The fact that Shelter in Place has been enforced has allowed them to drop those numbers down b/c you have less folks interacting.
I'm not putting my child nor the rest of my family in harms way over some damn soccer. I'm dealing with this issue of "stay/get back on the course" with a soccer trip to Madrid that I wish they would just cancel ... there are things bigger than sports and this is coming from someone who LOVES sports of any kind ... I even watch curling for God's sake.
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Post by oraclesfriend on Apr 8, 2020 22:11:31 GMT -5
Watching curling is serious dedication unless you are from Canada!😉
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Post by honeybadger on Apr 8, 2020 22:12:46 GMT -5
You may have missed my point. I'm talking about we need to get back to LIFE as normal. I only use soccer as the context because, well, this is a soccer based message board.
You are partially correct on the numbers; however, some of those experts predicting 2 million deaths were assuming we shutdown.
I have 12 and 14 year old girls myself and I'm not putting them in harm's way either. But I have never met a parent who kept their child home from soccer because 3 kids in their school got flu A or B, which has killed many thousands more in certain years than CV has so far.
My main point is , because this has been so negatively covered by the media (they have their motives), people are acting with irrational fear that they wouldn't be acting with if it was the same amount of deaths due to flu A.
The fact that we have flu vaccines but no CV vaccines is irrelevant to the point. It's the total dead that matters.
I'm sure there are parents who have kept their kids home because a couple kids in their school had flu I just have never personally heard of it on our teams. Heck, there have been times 2-3 on our TEAM had the flu. No one else stayed home from fear (and remember, not everyone gets their kids vaccinated for flu, so the vaccine is not necessarily the barometer in which we should use to decide).
Irrational fear will harm us more than going back to soccer in May.
Again, just my opinion, I'm not saying I'm right.
And I don't want anyone implying that I somehow don't care about kids, or that I care about soccer at any costs. 58,000 people die a year in car wrecks but 100% of the people on the message board have no problem with their kids being in a car-it's because we aren't given the CNN breaking news report every time every single person dies in a car.
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Post by Keeper on Apr 8, 2020 23:27:16 GMT -5
It’s only been a couple weeks 🤦🏻♂️ Relax...
Yes in this world of an idiot president who makes things up daily and then has members of the press agree with those bits of fiction it’s tough to know what is right and what is made up to just make stock prices go up.
But this is a real thing and considering the amount of deaths that are jumping for younger adults and children no one knows what it’s going to do so have some patience and just wait.
Families survived for centuries without seeing anyone outside of their family or living their homes for months, so kids having to text their friends is not going to ruin there already ruined social skills. There’s still plenty of things to do outside you just have to follow some basic rules of social distancing.
Funny how people think businesses are struggling while a majority of US Companies are so cash rich that they aren’t. And they just laid off the workforce and about to get massive tax bailouts so some are actually doing better then before. You think Publix, Kroger, Safeway, Target, Walmart, Home Depot, Amazon, Bestbuy are struggling? Their shelves say otherwise.
You gotta relax and start enjoying your summer at home because this is it. Spring soccer is done. Tryouts will be rescheduled. School is out til Fall. Pro sports are done through the summer. We can only hope NFL/NCAA FB can start up in August.
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Post by mistercalcio on Apr 8, 2020 23:40:08 GMT -5
I don’t mean to sound antagonistic but I am SO. TIRED. of the comparisons with the Flu (type A or B). It’s also pretty strange to compare a novel virus with no known vaccine to something (relatively) controllable and more violent as a car accident. You’ve shared several opinions, and I will too, but the fact of this matter is that there are NO fair comparisons for a situation like this. There is scientific data backing the severity and contagiousness of this virus, so comparisons to the flu, H1N1, et all is similar to comparing this year’s UCL Champion to the Manchester United team winning in 2008. Fun argument for sports fans, not responsible when discussing viral systems that attack human lives.
You point to “total deaths” as one of your key pieces of evidence for your plan to “get back to normal.” First off, maybe the previous “normal” isn’t necessarily what we actually need to get back to. That’s my opinion but not anything I’m using as evidence against your plan. Secondly, a HUGE reason why total deaths are at the point they are currently is due to shelter in place, social distancing, and personal care methods. “Getting back to normal” is something that needs to take place when it is scientifically proven that our healthcare system can handle it. Saying things along the line of “we must get back by beginning of May” and “I hope club leaders are reading this” seems moderately irresponsible, in my opinion. I am in daily contact with family and friends working in the healthcare system and I am absolutely still feeling very cautious based on their first hand accounts. When our nation is showing true, productive signs of progress toward allowing our healthcare workers relative safety instead of being overwhelmed, then we can discuss “needing to get back on the field.” Until that time, stay in your home environment or take walks around your community (responsibly). I surely don’t have the time to go back and look for your predictions on this matter but let’s use the April 20th prediction of when GA will “peak” for total cases. You’re telling me that less than 2 weeks later you want groups of 20-30 athletes swapping breaths, sweat, and personal space when it’s been proven this virus emanates from the body? I realize youth athletes are a low risk subset, but that doesn’t preclude their families, friends, classmates from catching the virus from them upon the conclusion of a Saturday game. That seems like a wild roll of the dice that could absolutely yield another huge wave of cases going into May and June, further weakening our already hard-working healthcare workers.
My passion for the game is a way of life just as it is for many of us on here but this circumstance is much bigger than our “American need” to have players, parents, referees, coaches, etc outside watching a youth soccer game right now. Cabin fever sucks but being responsible for our country’s youth, frontline healthcare workers, and grandma and grandpa is a lot more important. I’d like my mom and dad to be able to still be around when my children are old enough to play.
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Post by slickdaddy96 on Apr 9, 2020 8:42:00 GMT -5
I've stated here and other places that original estimations in all doomsday scenarios is always over the top. I also know the motives involved with various people/groups/industries who benefit from bad news. I'll leave that for others to think about. I'm not going to make a political statement here so please, let's keep politics out of it. People can look back on everything I've said about Cv19 on this board. At first the death toll was potentially going to be 2.2 million.......then the same model said it could be 500,000.....then 240,000....then last weak it was 93,000.......and yesterday, it was 60,000. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it reaches 48,000 by the end of summer. My guess is just as accurate as all the experts (most of whom are bureaucrats with motives). I knew that the initial 2-3 week shutdown would never get us to 2.2 million. I also said if we shutdown through april-may, we won't have companies to come back to. I also said you will have more deaths from a total collapse of our economy than by this virus so if we truly care about human life we will get back to normal. I also know that as human beings, we need activity, we need sunshine, we need social interaction, and kids need the life lessons learned from being part of a team win or lose. Yes, CV19 will become annual like the flu, but this virus has been publicized so much by a media with ulterior motives, and that same media complex will demand the same shutdowns next year when this comes back like it will. Will we shutdown sports next winter if the normal flu hits with more severity than normal? That's a serious question, because the trend has been set. Will we? My point is this: these clubs need to get back to soccer by the start of May. Sports will be starting back up in May. America needs normalcy. Our elderly need to see their families again. I hope leaders of clubs happen to read this, and as long as the CV19 numbers gradually come down (remember, more ill be immune to it by may), have the guts to let these kids get back to doing this. Of course any parent who doesn't want to participate shouldn't have to. By the end of April if people are back to work, and there are no youth sports, we are going to look mighty silly. Just my opinion. Great post. That 2.2 million number was never going to happen even if we still ran full force and shut nothing down. It was a fear mongering number done on purpose to get us to shut down. We are already seeing now that it is not hospitalizing as many people as they predicted it would and I would say 90%+ of the deaths are all older people and people with vulnerabilities. I'm not saying their lives are not valuable, but a lot of these deaths were people that were going to be a statistic this year or next anyway. I'm not sure you shut down the younger working age Americans for that. 98% of the people recover from this and that stat is even higher in younger folks. Shelter the vulnerable people and elderly and let the rest of us accept the risk. Sadly the club soccer thing is done for the season, but this fall we need to play and even if there are spikes here and there in some type of second wave we need to play through it. Hospital capacity should be ramped up and fine by then. By fall we need to treat this like every other risk we take when we go out (flu, driving, etc....) We are going to look back on this and realize we really overreacted. Yes had we not close the death rate would have been higher but it wouldn't have been 2.2 million. We could have obtained lower numbers to begin with by just sheltering vulnerable people only.
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Post by mistergrinch on Apr 9, 2020 9:09:19 GMT -5
We are going to look back on this and realize we really overreacted. Actually, no. You can never know if you overreacted.. only if you under-reacted. If preventative measures work.. how on earth can you know if you did too much? Please enlighten me how you can retroactively figure out what the optimal measures would have been with the same outcome. I'll wait.
One of the dumbest arguments I keep seeing is 'see, the numbers are going to be much lower than the 'deep state' wanted us to believe!!!'... yeah, because we're actually doing something about it and it's working. NO, those models were NOT based on a massive shutdown.. stop spewing bullshizat.
This is prime monday morning quarterbacking.. just stop.
Oh, and the assertion that this will keep coming back like the flu? Where the hell did anyone get that idea? Is that why we see H1N1 and SARS coming back annually?
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Post by honeybadger on Apr 9, 2020 9:26:20 GMT -5
It’s only been a couple weeks 🤦🏻♂️ Relax... Yes in this world of an idiot president who makes things up daily and then has members of the press agree with those bits of fiction it’s tough to know what is right and what is made up to just make stock prices go up. But this is a real thing and considering the amount of deaths that are jumping for younger adults and children no one knows what it’s going to do so have some patience and just wait. Families survived for centuries without seeing anyone outside of their family or living their homes for months, so kids having to text their friends is not going to ruin there already ruined social skills. There’s still plenty of things to do outside you just have to follow some basic rules of social distancing. Funny how people think businesses are struggling while a majority of US Companies are so cash rich that they aren’t. And they just laid off the workforce and about to get massive tax bailouts so some are actually doing better then before. You think Publix, Kroger, Safeway, Target, Walmart, Home Depot, Amazon, Bestbuy are struggling? Their shelves say otherwise. You gotta relax and start enjoying your summer at home because this is it. Spring soccer is done. Tryouts will be rescheduled. School is out til Fall. Pro sports are done through the summer. We can only hope NFL/NCAA FB can start up in August. I said please keep the politics out of this thread. Way to listen. For every "lie" or negative thing you say about Trump I could easily go back on here and give you the actual video of Pelosi, Cuomo, CNN, Schumer, Waters, Schiff, etc telling lies, or being more cavalier about CV19 than trump but that isn't the point. I created this post to give an opinion on what we should do. I specifically asked for no politics. Start your own post if you want to bash trump. I'll happily rspond there.
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Post by oraclesfriend on Apr 9, 2020 10:02:30 GMT -5
It’s only been a couple weeks 🤦🏻♂️ Relax... Yes in this world of an idiot president who makes things up daily and then has members of the press agree with those bits of fiction it’s tough to know what is right and what is made up to just make stock prices go up. But this is a real thing and considering the amount of deaths that are jumping for younger adults and children no one knows what it’s going to do so have some patience and just wait. Families survived for centuries without seeing anyone outside of their family or living their homes for months, so kids having to text their friends is not going to ruin there already ruined social skills. There’s still plenty of things to do outside you just have to follow some basic rules of social distancing. Funny how people think businesses are struggling while a majority of US Companies are so cash rich that they aren’t. And they just laid off the workforce and about to get massive tax bailouts so some are actually doing better then before. You think Publix, Kroger, Safeway, Target, Walmart, Home Depot, Amazon, Bestbuy are struggling? Their shelves say otherwise. You gotta relax and start enjoying your summer at home because this is it. Spring soccer is done. Tryouts will be rescheduled. School is out til Fall. Pro sports are done through the summer. We can only hope NFL/NCAA FB can start up in August. I said please keep the politics out of this thread. Way to listen. For every "lie" or negative thing you say about Trump I could easily go back on here and give you the actual video of Pelosi, Cuomo, CNN, Schumer, Waters, Schiff, etc telling lies, or being more cavalier about CV19 than trump but that isn't the point. I created this post to give an opinion on what we should do. I specifically asked for no politics. Start your own post if you want to bash trump. I'll happily rspond there. Part of the problem is that this topic was presented politically. The moment that anyone says things about the agendas or motives of the media or other groups that is a political statement right there. I hate to point that out, but it is true. When you remove those comments from your original post then your opinions can be looked at apolitically. I really want to get back to normal life! I want my kids playing soccer and going to school. I want them to see their friends nearly daily. I want their school instruction to be as it was. I don't want my kid's AP exam grades to be based on 2 questions and a 45 minute test. I am upset that she is missing out on a great training opportunity that she had this spring that COULD have catapulted her to where she wants to be soccer wise. BUT I understand this pandemic and how unpredictable it is. I think one of the most important points is why should we "Americans" treat this virus differently than the rest of the WORLD! Being American does not protect you from this virus. Having American healthcare does not mean we will save everyone salvageable. The US is just as vulnerable to this virus as Europe. The earlier you get a handle on it the better the countries do. To go back to regular life while the numbers are still so high is foolish! As much as I don't want to stay home all of the time, I am willing to do it so my kids can go to their summer camps and other things they had planned. This is a huge country and there will be areas that I think can be normal earlier than others. Metro Atlanta will likely not be in the early category. The earlier you accept what needs to be done, the easier it will be for you to just look forward to the light at the end of the tunnel...
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Post by Futsal Gawdess on Apr 9, 2020 10:41:18 GMT -5
I've stated here and other places that original estimations in all doomsday scenarios is always over the top. I also know the motives involved with various people/groups/industries who benefit from bad news. I'll leave that for others to think about. I'm not going to make a political statement here so please, let's keep politics out of it. People can look back on everything I've said about Cv19 on this board. At first the death toll was potentially going to be 2.2 million.......then the same model said it could be 500,000.....then 240,000....then last weak it was 93,000.......and yesterday, it was 60,000. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it reaches 48,000 by the end of summer. My guess is just as accurate as all the experts (most of whom are bureaucrats with motives). I knew that the initial 2-3 week shutdown would never get us to 2.2 million. I also said if we shutdown through april-may, we won't have companies to come back to. I also said you will have more deaths from a total collapse of our economy than by this virus so if we truly care about human life we will get back to normal. I also know that as human beings, we need activity, we need sunshine, we need social interaction, and kids need the life lessons learned from being part of a team win or lose. Yes, CV19 will become annual like the flu, but this virus has been publicized so much by a media with ulterior motives, and that same media complex will demand the same shutdowns next year when this comes back like it will. Will we shutdown sports next winter if the normal flu hits with more severity than normal? That's a serious question, because the trend has been set. Will we? My point is this: these clubs need to get back to soccer by the start of May. Sports will be starting back up in May. America needs normalcy. Our elderly need to see their families again. I hope leaders of clubs happen to read this, and as long as the CV19 numbers gradually come down (remember, more ill be immune to it by may), have the guts to let these kids get back to doing this. Of course any parent who doesn't want to participate shouldn't have to. By the end of April if people are back to work, and there are no youth sports, we are going to look mighty silly. Just my opinion. IMO... Just WoW! I know this is a Soccer forum, but at the end of the day, folks are trying to make the best of a bad and unknown situation for an activity that is absolutely a CHOICE. I know it is for some rabid fans but Soccer is no Life. Additionally, I find it very disheartening that we're throwing around numbers of deaths like they are nothing(not saying that you specifically said this). However, we have to be cognizant of the fact that real lives are being lost here. Doesn't matter whether it's 1/10/100/1,000/100,000. They add up to lost Mothers, Fathers, Sisters, Brothers, Grandparents, Children or in one particularly tragic case most within one nuclear family. We all want to go back to the Normalcy of life, whether it be for necessity, boredom, social interaction, work, or to avoid looking "silly" 🙄🙄🙄
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Post by slickdaddy96 on Apr 9, 2020 11:30:59 GMT -5
We are going to look back on this and realize we really overreacted. Actually, no. You can never know if you overreacted.. only if you under-reacted. If preventative measures work.. how on earth can you know if you did too much? Please enlighten me how you can retroactively figure out what the optimal measures would have been with the same outcome. I'll wait.
One of the dumbest arguments I keep seeing is 'see, the numbers are going to be much lower than the 'deep state' wanted us to believe!!!'... yeah, because we're actually doing something about it and it's working. NO, those models were NOT based on a massive shutdown.. stop spewing bullshizat.
This is prime monday morning quarterbacking.. just stop.
Oh, and the assertion that this will keep coming back like the flu? Where the hell did anyone get that idea? Is that why we see H1N1 and SARS coming back annually?
First off I'm not some deep state conspiracy person so don't assume stuff of me you don't have a clue about. You know what they say when you ass-u-me right? Second off my point was that even if we did absolutely nothing we would have never reached that 2.2 million number. It would have never happened in any case staying open or not. It was a high point number with junk data going into a model and junk data coming out. I do believe that epidemiologists in general are always going to have bias toward pandemics versus any other issue. I do believe the data was fed to create a number that would turn heads and get the attention of the politicians to close things down. I'm not saying it was a nefarious thing. These people really do want to save lives, but they have tunnel vision of the risk/impact to only look at the virus and not the deaths and hurting people due to the global recession or depression that could happen if we do what I'm sure most of them want us to do which is keep it all closed through summer and open up for school by fall, but no sports, and then if a spike happens close it all up again. They think of only one thing. They do not take into account other things. There is an acceptable risk level. I think we have already gone overboard for the majority of people in this country with the stats I am seeing on hospitalization and deaths in younger working age folks. You listen to the experts right? They have all said they believe that there will be a second wave in fall and winter. I didn't just pull that out of my ass. This is a coronavirus, and based on other coronaviruses they expect it to come back in a second wave in the cool months. They also fear it may mutate like a lot of other coronaviruses (some of which cause what we call the common cold, yes some common cold viruses are rhinoviruses, some are coronaviruses). So yes it can be with us for a while until the herd immunity to this particular strain is complete. The reason we don't see H1N1 and SARS is because of the places that got it badly herd immunity caused it to not find new sources to spread and it died out. That doesn't mean that at some point these will not rear their ugly head again in a mutation. My point is that we need to treat this like any other coronavirus, rhinovirus, flu virus and get on with our lives. There is an acceptable amount of risk we should be able to take without our government holding our hand and telling us we can't do it.
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Post by mistercalcio on Apr 9, 2020 14:11:13 GMT -5
. My point is that we need to treat this like any other coronavirus, rhinovirus, flu virus and get on with our lives. There is an acceptable amount of risk we should be able to take without our government holding our hand and telling us we can't do it. Here come the flu equivalents again. They’re not the same. Don’t treat them the same. When the flu starts overpowering our hospitals, get back to me.
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Post by justwatching on Apr 9, 2020 14:13:36 GMT -5
I think people arguing that we need to hurry up and get back on with life... the shelter in place/isolation is killing more people than it is protecting... or COVID-19 is similar/the same/not as bad as the flu... sound like irresponsible idiots. Please stop. Stay at home and let the experts make the decisions that need to be made to save people's lives. You can be "inconvenienced" for a few more weeks.
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Post by mistergrinch on Apr 9, 2020 14:19:05 GMT -5
the shelter in place/isolation is killing more people than it is protecting... I keep hearing this argument as well... perhaps someone can explain. All that 'staying at home' is killing people?
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Post by honeybadger on Apr 9, 2020 16:24:49 GMT -5
1. I think the person means what I have said before. If we "stay at home" too much longer (say through May), our economy will be so destroyed you will have more deaths than would have resulted from the actual virus. You will have rampant crime in the bigger cities first as people starve and need things. Many bad things happen when civilizations break down. Cities burn, hospitals get more crowded.
2. Saying the media has an agenda was not bringing politics into in, because I never stated what their agenda was. But since its been brought up allow me: 90% of the doctors (Fauci and Birx included) that run these organizations are DC elites. They are bureaucrats. They want Trump to lose in November. 90% of the people at CNN, MSNBC, NPR, ABC, CBS, NYTimes want Trump to fail. 80% of the mayors of our largest cities want Trump to lose in November. Pelosi wants Trump to lose in November, as does Schumer and Schiff. If you don't think politics plays an angle in everything that goes on in DC, then you aren't being observant.
3. Again, I never said this is the flu, nor like the flu. My point there was that they both kill a certain segment of the population. Therefore, they CAN be discussed in the same context. Some have hinted that I may not care about life. I said the exact opposite: that it's just as bad when someone dies of the flu, or in a car, or whatever it may be.
4. people have taken my post and turned it into people calling other people idiots. The title of the post shows that I am just trying to be positive!
5. Out of curiosity, is Fauci the expert when he's telling us to shut down and stay shutdown? Or was Fauci the expert back in January who was downplaying CV19 while Trump was calling for a travel ban? Because he has said both.
6. As far as the deaths predicted. The only model where mitigation was not considered was the 2.2 million. The same model that predicted 500,000, 240,000, 93,000, then 80,000 and then finally 60,000 all used the same mitigation inputs that have been in place. And they have still been way off every single step along the way.
7. If anyone thinks I mean right this exact moment we run out and hug each other and share food in a buffet line, you missed my point. I'm just saying that I think in May we should be doing that. I think if we are shutdown as a country through may, none of the other things will matter because there won't be companies opened to employ you. There won't be any need to explain socialism in social studies classes to our youth, because they can simply look outside and see it for themselves because we will be full blown 100% Venezuela.
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Post by oraclesfriend on Apr 9, 2020 16:25:16 GMT -5
. My point is that we need to treat this like any other coronavirus, rhinovirus, flu virus and get on with our lives. There is an acceptable amount of risk we should be able to take without our government holding our hand and telling us we can't do it. Here come the flu equivalents again. They’re not the same. Don’t treat them the same. When the flu starts overpowering our hospitals, get back to me. I wish I could double, triple, quadruple like this...
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Post by honeybadger on Apr 9, 2020 16:51:33 GMT -5
I'm just trying to stay positive and be upbeat. I'm a glass half-full type guy.
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Post by mistercalcio on Apr 9, 2020 20:18:12 GMT -5
I'm just trying to stay positive and be upbeat. I'm a glass half-full type guy. You also stated “ I have 12 and 14 year old girls myself and I'm not putting them in harm's way either. But I have never met a parent who kept their child home from soccer because 3 kids in their school got flu A or B, which has killed many thousands more in certain years than CV has so far. My main point is , because this has been so negatively covered by the media (they have their motives), people are acting with irrational fear that they wouldn't be acting with if it was the same amount of deaths due to flu A.” That seems pretty clearly a flu/COVID comparison. You also bring up several medical experts for their changing statements, is it not also fair to hold you to a similar standard? Because I’ve seen several statements that seem like backtrack/sidesteps compared to original post. I’m a pretty optimistic, glass half full kind of guy, too, but neither your original post nor your responses have come across that way to me. It seemed like a pretty politically charged assertion that you then asked for no political rebuttals to. Personally, I haven’t tried to include any politics in my responses to you - just thoughts and opinions based on first hand knowledge of the current medical landscape. My political stances won’t mean a thing in response to you because we clearly have very different opinions (yes, opinions) on the matter. I absolutely will find a way to respond end of May if I look outside and see Venezuela. I’ll repeat, I’m not attempting to be antagonistic, but you’re communicating in a pretty confusing manner for someone who wants to keep politics out of it and isn’t claiming to be making flu comparisons. We’re Americans. Let’s get back to it when the situation is appropriate for everyone to pursue a safe and happy life.
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Post by honeybadger on Apr 9, 2020 21:14:06 GMT -5
we agree to disagree and we will leave it at that.
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Post by Futsal Gawdess on Apr 10, 2020 0:19:48 GMT -5
I'm just trying to stay positive and be upbeat. I'm a glass half-full type guy. You also stated “ I have 12 and 14 year old girls myself and I'm not putting them in harm's way either. But I have never met a parent who kept their child home from soccer because 3 kids in their school got flu A or B, which has killed many thousands more in certain years than CV has so far. My main point is , because this has been so negatively covered by the media (they have their motives), people are acting with irrational fear that they wouldn't be acting with if it was the same amount of deaths due to flu A.” That seems pretty clearly a flu/COVID comparison. You also bring up several medical experts for their changing statements, is it not also fair to hold you to a similar standard? Because I’ve seen several statements that seem like backtrack/sidesteps compared to original post. I’m a pretty optimistic, glass half full kind of guy, too, but neither your original post nor your responses have come across that way to me. It seemed like a pretty politically charged assertion that you then asked for no political rebuttals to. Personally, I haven’t tried to include any politics in my responses to you - just thoughts and opinions based on first hand knowledge of the current medical landscape. My political stances won’t mean a thing in response to you because we clearly have very different opinions (yes, opinions) on the matter. I absolutely will find a way to respond end of May if I look outside and see Venezuela. I’ll repeat, I’m not attempting to be antagonistic, but you’re communicating in a pretty confusing manner for someone who wants to keep politics out of it and isn’t claiming to be making flu comparisons. We’re Americans. Let’s get back to it when the situation is appropriate for everyone to pursue a safe and happy life. Very well said...👏👏👏
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Post by soccerspin on Apr 10, 2020 8:33:07 GMT -5
Will be interesting to see what happens with Sweden as they’ve chosen to not lockdown... www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-sweden-and-denmark-represent-opposite-scandinavian-covid-19-responsesAs for us, right, wrong, or otherwise, I just don’t see large gatherings (50+) until there’s a vaccine. I wish I could be more optimistic about sports and other activities starting back up even by the fall, but it doesn’t seem likely (again, without a vaccine). And while we may not need a full on shelter in place in a month or so, the continued social distancing requirements will be devastating to businesses (our collective livelihood as we need jobs) across the board. It’s likely to be far, far more than a “few weeks of inconvenience.” 😥
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Post by notcrazysoccerdad on Apr 10, 2020 8:39:24 GMT -5
"I don't want to be political, but here is my view that is clearly informed by only watching Hannity and I hate Libtards and and MAGA baby! NO WORSE THAN FLU I TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY I KNEW IT WAS A PANDEMIC ALL ALONG!"
I mean, come on.
There was probably nothing that any politician could have done to prevent CV from spreading through the US, but closing the economy isn't some vast liberal plot to get Trump. Plenty of "Dem" voters are suffering from this - as are "Pub" voters. For the most part, the government is doing what it does - generally point in the right direction and fight each other to the death about whether we should go 5 degrees either way.
So OK yes you can have an opinion, but recognize that is all it is - and then listen to medical experts and epidemiologists. This bug is nasty and would have killed millions of Americans (current fatality rate is over the original 3.4% estimate) if we did nothing. We shut stuff down and saved a bunch of lives.
My kid was having the best season of her life and everything was clicking. It sucks. But, I also know people that have gotten incredibly sick and I wouldn't wish that on 60% of the population so the season could go on.
/rant
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Post by atlfutboldad on Apr 10, 2020 10:27:56 GMT -5
I'm glad the Swedes are doing this. We need a society to compare and contrast and find out the best way of handling it is. Without this, we wouldn't know. They're testing the herd immunity theory with this virus in real time. Hopefully it ends up no worse than the lock-down method.
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Post by soccergurl on Apr 10, 2020 19:17:54 GMT -5
I've stated here and other places that original estimations in all doomsday scenarios is always over the top. I also know the motives involved with various people/groups/industries who benefit from bad news. I'll leave that for others to think about. I'm not going to make a political statement here so please, let's keep politics out of it. People can look back on everything I've said about Cv19 on this board. At first the death toll was potentially going to be 2.2 million.......then the same model said it could be 500,000.....then 240,000....then last weak it was 93,000.......and yesterday, it was 60,000. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it reaches 48,000 by the end of summer. My guess is just as accurate as all the experts (most of whom are bureaucrats with motives). I knew that the initial 2-3 week shutdown would never get us to 2.2 million. I also said if we shutdown through april-may, we won't have companies to come back to. I also said you will have more deaths from a total collapse of our economy than by this virus so if we truly care about human life we will get back to normal. I also know that as human beings, we need activity, we need sunshine, we need social interaction, and kids need the life lessons learned from being part of a team win or lose. Yes, CV19 will become annual like the flu, but this virus has been publicized so much by a media with ulterior motives, and that same media complex will demand the same shutdowns next year when this comes back like it will. Will we shutdown sports next winter if the normal flu hits with more severity than normal? That's a serious question, because the trend has been set. Will we? My point is this: these clubs need to get back to soccer by the start of May. Sports will be starting back up in May. America needs normalcy. Our elderly need to see their families again. I hope leaders of clubs happen to read this, and as long as the CV19 numbers gradually come down (remember, more ill be immune to it by may), have the guts to let these kids get back to doing this. Of course any parent who doesn't want to participate shouldn't have to. By the end of April if people are back to work, and there are no youth sports, we are going to look mighty silly. Just my opinion. dis sound like a lot of politics to me we listen to health people and then we go back to work and the soccer why u no want to hear medical people
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Post by footyfan on Apr 10, 2020 20:44:42 GMT -5
At least we have a sidebar thread to vomit into so it doesnt interrupt soccer threads.
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Post by soccermonster on Apr 11, 2020 7:31:53 GMT -5
I knew I said I also know I've stated
I, I, I, I.......
Self centered? Narcissist? Lacking emotional intelligence?
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Post by slickdaddy96 on Apr 13, 2020 8:53:34 GMT -5
6. As far as the deaths predicted. The only model where mitigation was not considered was the 2.2 million. The same model that predicted 500,000, 240,000, 93,000, then 80,000 and then finally 60,000 all used the same mitigation inputs that have been in place. And they have still been way off every single step along the way. This right here is correct, and it is a shame that no media outlet is even investigating or questioning this. The same mitigation numbers were built into these models when it was predicted all those deaths except the 2.2 million number. We can't see the data going in. They don't give us that info. I believe there was garbage data going in and garbage data going out, and only now that real data is being fed into it are the death, hospitalization, and ICU beds needed going down in these models. The fact is these epidemiologist always think "doomsday", and I do believe some of the data going into the early models was purposely meant to scare people and politicians into shutting down the economy. Now they are going back and revising these models with real-time data and not being called to the carpet for being so wrong with them to begin with again with all mitigation factors being baked in several iterations ago, and they congratulate us for making those numbers go down and that is bull crap because the mitigation was built in back when they predicted 500,000 deaths. There are hospitals with very few patients. There are less people going to the hospital than they thought. There are field hospitals either being shuttered due to no patients or have very few patients. The truth we will find when it is all said and done is that we overreacted to this situation and it was mainly to do with very false models being given to us. We have 17+ million people out of work due to this overreaction and there are people's livelyhoods being destroyed and people committing suicide at an alarming rate now. One just happened in Newnan just last week and it was related to depression from all of this. The fact is we take chances in every single thing we do. People die from various causes every day. Its sad, but it happens. This should have been treated like any other risk/benefit thing we do and left the economy open while protecting the vulnerable. I think history will show that is what we should have done as well.
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Post by footyfan on Apr 13, 2020 9:04:49 GMT -5
6. As far as the deaths predicted. The only model where mitigation was not considered was the 2.2 million. The same model that predicted 500,000, 240,000, 93,000, then 80,000 and then finally 60,000 all used the same mitigation inputs that have been in place. And they have still been way off every single step along the way. This right here is correct, and it is a shame that no media outlet is even investigating or questioning this. The same mitigation numbers were built into these models when it was predicted all those deaths except the 2.2 million number. We can't see the data going in. They don't give us that info. I believe there was garbage data going in and garbage data going out, and only now that real data is being fed into it are the death, hospitalization, and ICU beds needed going down in these models. The fact is these epidemiologist always think "doomsday", and I do believe some of the data going into the early models was purposely meant to scare people and politicians into shutting down the economy. Now they are going back and revising these models with real-time data and not being called to the carpet for being so wrong with them to begin with again with all mitigation factors being baked in several iterations ago, and they congratulate us for making those numbers go down and that is bull crap because the mitigation was built in back when they predicted 500,000 deaths. There are hospitals with very few patients. There are less people going to the hospital than they thought. There are field hospitals either being shuttered due to no patients or have very few patients. The truth we will find when it is all said and done is that we overreacted to this situation and it was mainly to do with very false models being given to us. We have 17+ million people out of work due to this overreaction and there are people's livelyhoods being destroyed and people committing suicide at an alarming rate now. One just happened in Newnan just last week and it was related to depression from all of this. The fact is we take chances in every single thing we do. People die from various causes every day. Its sad, but it happens. This should have been treated like any other risk/benefit thing we do and left the economy open while protecting the vulnerable. I think history will show that is what we should have done as well. What model are you talking about? Do you mean to say the model used the same "assumptions". The mitigation plans would be just part of the assumptions.
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Post by slickdaddy96 on Apr 13, 2020 11:33:25 GMT -5
What model are you talking about? Do you mean to say the model used the same "assumptions". The mitigation plans would be just part of the assumptions. The one everyone is using the IMHE models. They are garbage man. From the information I am gathering the "mitigation plans" were baked into the models many many iterations ago. That data for that aspect has not changed on what they are putting in there from what I am reading about it, but yet they keep telling us to pat ourselves on the back for lowering the numbers even more which honestly is B.S because that part of the model data wise being fed in is not being changed. That only means one thing. They are starting to use real world and real country data as far as deaths, hospitalization, and ICU beds needed and the real data is way off from what the crap data they were loading into it before. My point is they were inflating data going in there to manipulate the models to look worse than the reality was going to be, and now they are going back and adjusting with real data, but blaming the change on the mitigation aspect instead of just admitting "hey guess what we thought it was going to be worse than it was, and we put in data to assume that early on." It seems the people building these models and the experts can never be wrong. My problem is the vast majority of media is not waking up and asking these tough questions to these model people and experts and holding them accountable for their inaccuracies. In my opinion the reason a lot of media isn't doing this is because it would indeed help Trump, and "orange man bad" so they can't do that. If you don't believe media has an agenda you are naive. Its both left-wing and right-wing as there is no media that is unbiased, thought the majority of media is indeed left-leaning. If you or I messed up a projection like that in our job, we would get fired or at least called out for it They can't be touched because they are the "experts". I call BS on that. We need to start questioning these models and these experts. They have tunnel vision of doomsday instead of taking all factors into account. Here is one of the lone wolves in the media that actually is questioning the data. I'm glad we have some that will instead of the group think of lemmings heading over the cliff mentality. www.dailywire.com/news/why-have-we-shut-down-the-country-ex-new-york-times-reporter-challenges-the-dire-coronavirus-models
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