|
|
Post by soccerparent02 on Aug 19, 2020 18:12:54 GMT -5
If true, then why are we believing these numbers? They aren't reliable.
|
|
|
|
Post by soccerparent02 on Aug 19, 2020 18:24:26 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by kidsocceruber on Aug 19, 2020 18:25:50 GMT -5
If we can't get the damn test right over 6 months...people think we can make an effective and safe vaccine in 6 months??? My strawman says that's akin to assuming Taco Bell can make gourmet food. When Taco Bell wins the restaurant wars you'll be eating those words! |
|
|
|
Post by oraclesfriend on Aug 19, 2020 18:47:07 GMT -5
There is not a test out there that is perfect. All tests have false negatives and false positives. Even the ones that have been out for decades. You have to have something to go on so hence the tests. It is also the reason many tests have back up tests or ask for repeat tests to confirm. Mammograms have a false positive rate of up to 12%. After 10 years of mammograms yearly your false positive rate is nearly 50% (the rate of false positive depends on age so that is why that math doesn't make sense). Do you (or your wife) get mammograms? The test should be improved upon if possible. We still need to use the test until a better one is available. Some accuracy is better than no test at all. |
|
|
|
Post by soccerparent02 on Aug 19, 2020 19:21:30 GMT -5
Reporting the test results with this many potential false positives without reporting the false positives is irresponsible. I dont disagree that testing is needed. I'm calling bs on how results are reported as accurate by the media.
|
|
|
|
Post by Respect on Aug 19, 2020 20:26:47 GMT -5
Reporting the test results with this many potential false positives without reporting the false positives is irresponsible. I dont disagree that testing is needed. I'm calling bs on how results are reported as accurate by the media. Based on the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) CDC as of Aug 19, we have in the USA 74,830,464 Test Reported; 6,633,163 Positive Tests, 9% Overall % Positive. There are quite a few disclaimers for these figures, which you can read in their official web site. Also, based on the same US federal cabinet department's data, we have in the USA 5,460,429 Total Cases; 171,012 Total Deaths, and 1,666 Cases per 100,000 People as of earlier today. You can use this data to infer (or support) your own true and beliefs: people can choose to build up their tower of ignorance higher or adopt others' beliefs without knowing that belief being actually true, or anything in between. You choose. |
|
|
|
Post by atlfutboldad on Aug 20, 2020 9:37:20 GMT -5
I think the numbers are ROUGHLY accurate, just given the amount of time that has passed and general respiratory viral spread. But any individual test should be taken with a grain of salt, especially if you are sick and test negative. Stay home and quarantine.
But in the end there's really only 3 numbers that matter...hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths (hospitalizations and deaths primarily). You can basically track the spread based on these two metrics.
The good news is that after a terrible previous 3 weeks, things are starting to trend down again. Carry on and keep doing what you're doing.
|
|
|
|
Post by footyfan on Aug 20, 2020 10:31:05 GMT -5
I think the numbers are ROUGHLY accurate, just given the amount of time that has passed and general respiratory viral spread. But any individual test should be taken with a grain of salt, especially if you are sick and test negative. Stay home and quarantine. But in the end there's really only 3 numbers that matter...hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths (hospitalizations and deaths primarily). You can basically track the spread based on these two metrics. The good news is that after a terrible previous 3 weeks, things are starting to trend down again. Carry on and keep doing what you're doing. Agreed. Do you give any credence to the "excess deaths" numbers they talk about in Europe? |
|
|
|
Post by atlfutboldad on Aug 20, 2020 10:57:39 GMT -5
That's a tough one. Early on around May, I figured COVID was really doing a good job taking out people who only had a few months to live on average, primarily killing those over 80 with comorbitidities and that at some point we would see a dip in overall deaths below the average even during the pandemic, because there are less susceptible people to infect/kill. But it really hasn't materialized this way and the disease keeps finding more susceptible people. The 4 pages I've occasionally checked/compared during the pandemic to verify this. The last one is interesting because it relies on predicted deaths (which sometimes is off by 1K, and sometimes off by 5K+). Our excess deaths since June have hovered in the 10% above average (3rd page), which is around 5K-6K people. From a layman's  stats perspective this stuff is interesting. They all have about a 2 to 3-week lag on getting final numbers in. Average deaths per day from 2017: www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htmLinear graph of deaths per week: www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSexActual deaths by week: www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmPredicted deaths against averages by week: www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm |
|
|
|
Post by bogan on Aug 20, 2020 12:04:09 GMT -5
“From a layman's stats perspective this stuff is interesting.” Now you know everyone on this forum quoting stats is a professional, PhD, expert...🤣 |
|
|
|
Post by ball2futbol on Aug 20, 2020 14:10:33 GMT -5
I heard the census is in need of some good DATA collectors aka. statistical magicians! Job descriptions include: Must be willing to knock on doors... and masks are required. Most on this thread might be overqualified. Oh well!  |
|
|
|
Post by bogan on Aug 20, 2020 14:16:46 GMT -5
I heard the census is in need of some good DATA collectors aka. statistical magicians! Job descriptions include: Must be willing to knock on doors... and masks are required. Most on this thread might be overqualified. Oh well! Someone I know very well (cough) did this during college for some extra cash. Awful/Dangerous neighborhood he was assigned to... He stood at the curb and guessed how many people lived in each apartment...this happens more than you know. |
|
stats perspective this stuff is interesting. They all have about a 2 to 3-week lag on getting final numbers in.
