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Post by bogan on Jul 3, 2020 5:57:09 GMT -5
www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/Here's the GA data. Just like in the spring in NY and CA/WA, the spread takes times to manifest in confirmed cases because it takes a couple of weeks to show symptoms, get tested and get results. Confirmed cases started spiking 2 weeks ago. Hospitalizations have doubled since then. HOW CAN ANYONE THINK DEATHS WON'T FOLLOW? It takes time to die from COVID. Guys... the season is already cancelled, we just don't know it yet. From the Washington Post “Deaths, which had declined steadily for several months, also are rising. States reported that 700 people died Thursday of covid-19 — an increase of more than 25 percent compared to the previous seven-day average. “We are not flattening the curve right now,” Brett Giroir, the U.S. government’s coronavirus testing coordinator, said during a House hearing. “The curve is still going up.” |
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Post by GameOfThrow-ins on Jul 3, 2020 8:11:13 GMT -5
www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/Here's the GA data. Just like in the spring in NY and CA/WA, the spread takes times to manifest in confirmed cases because it takes a couple of weeks to show symptoms, get tested and get results. Confirmed cases started spiking 2 weeks ago. Hospitalizations have doubled since then. HOW CAN ANYONE THINK DEATHS WON'T FOLLOW? It takes time to die from COVID. Guys... the season is already cancelled, we just don't know it yet. All I see, even on your provided link, is plummeting death counts. The same is shown in CDC’s own numbers, despite more cases being uncovered. Is that not the most important stat to track? www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm |
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Post by nole95 on Jul 3, 2020 11:59:31 GMT -5
www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/Here's the GA data. Just like in the spring in NY and CA/WA, the spread takes times to manifest in confirmed cases because it takes a couple of weeks to show symptoms, get tested and get results. Confirmed cases started spiking 2 weeks ago. Hospitalizations have doubled since then. HOW CAN ANYONE THINK DEATHS WON'T FOLLOW? It takes time to die from COVID. Guys... the season is already cancelled, we just don't know it yet. From the Washington Post “Deaths, which had declined steadily for several months, also are rising. States reported that 700 people died Thursday of covid-19 — an increase of more than 25 percent compared to the previous seven-day average. “We are not flattening the curve right now,” Brett Giroir, the U.S. government’s coronavirus testing coordinator, said during a House hearing. “The curve is still going up.” I'd love to know where the Washington Post got their info from that deaths are on the rise. I have been tracking the daily Worldometer numbers since this all started, and the 7 day average deaths is at the lowest it has ever been at. 562 as of end of yesterday. The last time the 7 day average was above 700 was on June 16. It has been declining ever since, and was declining well before that. You can pull all this up right on the Worldometer chart and clearly see the 7 day line has been trending down for a long time for deaths. From everything we are hearing from various state governments it is the young people making up the largest percentage of these newest infections. Ones that have a way less chance of dying and having overly bad symptoms. I'll also add that symptoms can show up anywhere from 2-14 days after exposure. It is not always two weeks from exposure to symptoms. |
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Post by sanesoccerdad on Jul 3, 2020 13:18:58 GMT -5
www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/Here's the GA data. Just like in the spring in NY and CA/WA, the spread takes times to manifest in confirmed cases because it takes a couple of weeks to show symptoms, get tested and get results. Confirmed cases started spiking 2 weeks ago. Hospitalizations have doubled since then. HOW CAN ANYONE THINK DEATHS WON'T FOLLOW? It takes time to die from COVID. Guys... the season is already cancelled, we just don't know it yet. All I see, even on your provided link, is plummeting death counts. The same is shown in CDC’s own numbers, despite more cases being uncovered. Is that not the most important stat to track? www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmSetting aside a discussion about long term health impacts even if you don't die from the disease, yes a death is the worst possible outcome and will be the ultimate measure of the cost of COVID. But there are leading indicators and lagging indicators. Death is the ultimate lagging indicator. New confirmed cases is the leading indicator, hospitalizations is next, ICU cases follows, then deaths. As we saw in March/April in NYC, the relationship between these events takes time to manifest. Likely a couple of months in aggregate. Unless something has radically changed... and the only things that seems possible is 1) all of these confirmed cases skew younger or 2) we have better treatment... we will eventually see the deaths. I hope you are right, but just looking at the the lagging indicator is never the right way to predict future problems. |
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Post by bogan on Jul 3, 2020 13:46:41 GMT -5
“I'd love to know where the Washington Post got their info from that deaths are on the rise.”
Don’t know-but there is so much conflicting information out there that it’s hard to know what is fact and what is fiction. I do know that, at least in my area, hospitalizations are significantly on the rise; however, there has not been a spike in deaths as of yet-and I hope it stays that way.
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Post by GameOfThrow-ins on Jul 3, 2020 16:39:44 GMT -5
All I see, even on your provided link, is plummeting death counts. The same is shown in CDC’s own numbers, despite more cases being uncovered. Is that not the most important stat to track? www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmSetting aside a discussion about long term health impacts even if you don't die from the disease, yes a death is the worst possible outcome and will be the ultimate measure of the cost of COVID. But there are leading indicators and lagging indicators. Death is the ultimate lagging indicator. New confirmed cases is the leading indicator, hospitalizations is next, ICU cases follows, then deaths. As we saw in March/April in NYC, the relationship between these events takes time to manifest. Likely a couple of months in aggregate. Unless something has radically changed... and the only things that seems possible is 1) all of these confirmed cases skew younger or 2) we have better treatment... we will eventually see the deaths. I hope you are right, but just looking at the the lagging indicator is never the right way to predict future problems. I understand what you’re saying but it is also true that testing itself has ramped up substantially since March/April. There is consensus now that actual cases are 10x confirmed cases - not just right now but throughout this crisis. That diminishes the gap between lagging and leading indicators to the point of limited real value. |
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Post by rudy on Jul 3, 2020 19:00:16 GMT -5
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Post by GameOfThrow-ins on Jul 3, 2020 19:06:35 GMT -5
Really? The GP? Zero credibility for you. Ever.
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Post by atlfutboldad on Jul 3, 2020 20:31:12 GMT -5
If deaths are lagging, they're REALLY lagging in ways they didn't in April and May. As cases started spiking after memorial day, protests, and bar openings there hasn't been corresponding deaths.
(Thankfully) unlike April and may the hospitals have better treatments and so people are less likely to need ventilators and intubation.
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Post by rudy on Jul 3, 2020 20:49:51 GMT -5
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Post by bogan on Jul 3, 2020 21:13:40 GMT -5
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Post by rudy on Jul 3, 2020 22:56:44 GMT -5
I guess since it originally appeared in The Atlantic my cred is saved...lol. This has been reported in other places as well.
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Post by oraclesfriend on Jul 4, 2020 9:04:12 GMT -5
The way the positive cases have been collected varies state by state. This is unacceptable. The antibody test vs swabs tests need to be reported differently but both need to be reported so we see the percentage of the population that have potential immunity. However this is not the biggest failure IMO. The biggest failure is that we are not reporting RECOVERIES in most states so we have no freaking idea how many active cases there are at a given time!!! This is a failure of both federal and state government! The federal government needed to step up and tell the state governments how we were going to track the information. All of the state public health department heads needed to meet together and with the federal health department (CDC) and settle this all early on.
The data can be cleaned up and has been cleaned up from time to time when errors were discovered. This has happened in our individual states as well as internationally. They need to clean it up but they need to add recovered cases as a priority.
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Post by bogan on Jul 5, 2020 11:39:21 GMT -5
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Post by soccerelite11 on Jul 5, 2020 16:11:59 GMT -5
www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/Here's the GA data. Just like in the spring in NY and CA/WA, the spread takes times to manifest in confirmed cases because it takes a couple of weeks to show symptoms, get tested and get results. Confirmed cases started spiking 2 weeks ago. Hospitalizations have doubled since then. HOW CAN ANYONE THINK DEATHS WON'T FOLLOW? It takes time to die from COVID. Guys... the season is already cancelled, we just don't know it yet. You are spot on. It is cancelled. People just can’t understand it because the sound of their wishful thinking is drowning out the sound of reality. |
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Post by rudy on Jul 6, 2020 22:51:11 GMT -5
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Post by atlfutboldad on Jul 7, 2020 9:59:26 GMT -5
Since its not citing anything, this appears to be an inference based on CDC rules.
While this is good to see and hopefully it continues, this would be front page news if the CDC actually came out and announced it. IMO they likely won't announce it for 2 reasons...first of which would be 90% of people throwing away their masks and ignoring distancing guidelines leading to even more spread (back into nursing homes killing many more), and the second is my skeptical opinion that would be purely political.
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Post by footyfan on Jul 7, 2020 18:34:09 GMT -5
Here is a good viz of the GA dept of health data in 4 easy charts: covidtracking.com/data/state/georgiaYou can back out to the full US and all states by clicking the "our data" link, then click on the state you want to view. |
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Post by bogan on Jul 9, 2020 17:46:18 GMT -5
www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/Here's the GA data. Just like in the spring in NY and CA/WA, the spread takes times to manifest in confirmed cases because it takes a couple of weeks to show symptoms, get tested and get results. Confirmed cases started spiking 2 weeks ago. Hospitalizations have doubled since then. HOW CAN ANYONE THINK DEATHS WON'T FOLLOW? It takes time to die from COVID. Guys... the season is already cancelled, we just don't know it yet. LA Times: “COVID-19 death tolls now rising in key states after weeks of decline nationwide” |
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Post by kidsocceruber on Jul 9, 2020 19:32:41 GMT -5
FWIW there are kids testing positive for it asymptomatically in our age group, I'm sure they won't be the last throughout US/GA Soccer.
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Post by oraclesfriend on Jul 9, 2020 20:07:12 GMT -5
FWIW there are kids testing positive for it asymptomatically in our age group, I'm sure they won't be the last throughout US/GA Soccer. Got that email as well. Luckily we have not been at that practice. |
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Post by sanesoccerdad on Jul 9, 2020 23:41:54 GMT -5
FWIW there are kids testing positive for it asymptomatically in our age group, I'm sure they won't be the last throughout US/GA Soccer. Got that email as well. Luckily we have not been at that practice. My kid’s practice was canceled for the rest of the week... Hmmm. |
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Post by mistercalcio on Jul 10, 2020 1:50:42 GMT -5
FWIW there are kids testing positive for it asymptomatically in our age group, I'm sure they won't be the last throughout US/GA Soccer. I know this is sometimes a “no no” on this forum but would you mind sharing which club you’re a part of? Normally wouldn’t ask if the circumstances weren’t such as these - and honestly, if it’s one major club in the metro ATL area, it’ll probably be others soon afterward 😥 |
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Post by kidsocceruber on Jul 10, 2020 6:46:53 GMT -5
FWIW there are kids testing positive for it asymptomatically in our age group, I'm sure they won't be the last throughout US/GA Soccer. I know this is sometimes a “no no” on this forum but would you mind sharing which club you’re a part of? Normally wouldn’t ask if the circumstances weren’t such as these - and honestly, if it’s one major club in the metro ATL area, it’ll probably be others soon afterward 😥 Since they mailed it out to an entire distribution list of that year's parents(if they were ever associated) I guess it's more or less public information, but for the sake of any privacy left I'll just say it was from one of the larger clubs in the area. I don't know how(or if) there was any contamination to others on comment on those teams that could have been exposed(or not at all). Staying vague I know of one other asympomatic positive test with a club one of my children play with but any potential exposure to others was very limited to none. |
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Post by humphry on Jul 10, 2020 9:41:12 GMT -5
www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/Here's the GA data. Just like in the spring in NY and CA/WA, the spread takes times to manifest in confirmed cases because it takes a couple of weeks to show symptoms, get tested and get results. Confirmed cases started spiking 2 weeks ago. Hospitalizations have doubled since then. HOW CAN ANYONE THINK DEATHS WON'T FOLLOW? It takes time to die from COVID. Guys... the season is already cancelled, we just don't know it yet. |
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Post by humphry on Jul 10, 2020 10:03:45 GMT -5
So, at some point we need to use LOGIC in analyzing these numbers and not succumb to the fear mongers and stop watching CNN.
From day one, those most vulnerable have been VERY old people. The mean death rate remains in the late 70s (if not 80) which is OLDER than mortality table life expectancy. Yes, this is sad, but it is what it is and shouldn't cause the US to completely shut down the other 98% who are NOT vulnerable.
Young are not vulnerable to it. They are more vulnerable to the flew. All data 100% proves this. Yet, we do not shut down for the flew.
Regardless of age of deaths, in GA between 6 and 25 die/day from Covid. Let's assume that the rates will go up. Based on the data over the past 90 days, it may get to 30/day--but I doubt it will get above 20 due to the young ages of people getting it. So, if the dire occurs on the lagging deaths, why are we shutting down over 20-30 daily deaths?
You understand that almost 5 people (usually young) die each day on GA road. Equally important, there are 1700 car wrecks/day in GA which means dozens EACH DAY get maimed for life and/or hospitalized for weeks/months. If we dropped the speed limit to 25 mph, we would save 90% of these lives and seriously injured. Why don't we? Because CNN is not doing a 24/7 news coverage freaking everyone out to be afraid to drive. This is no different than when there is a plane crash and people fear flying. IF CNN showed 24/7 plane crash video, I guarantee you would not want to fly regardless of the data that shows flying is more safe than driving.
Finally, to remind you the hypocricy in all of this, just think of weeks ago if we didn't shelter in place we were murderers and putting man kind at risk. Then, 2 weeks later the protests occurred, but social justice becomes more important than saving man kind and thousands--if not millions--flooded the streets. Doesn't that tell you that this is really about fear mongering.
I am 100% certain that the day after the election, suddenly we will all go back to normal. The only good news in all of this is, if I am right which I think I will be, by say 8/1 people will see that deaths have not gone up dramatically and we have herd immunity. While the "wait 2 more weeks for the lagging death" people will still be out there, the broader US community hopefully will realize we can indeed get back to normal for 98% of the country.
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Post by sanesoccerdad on Jul 10, 2020 10:59:08 GMT -5
So, at some point we need to use LOGIC in analyzing these numbers and not succumb to the fear mongers and stop watching CNN. From day one, those most vulnerable have been VERY old people. The mean death rate remains in the late 70s (if not 80) which is OLDER than mortality table life expectancy. Yes, this is sad, but it is what it is and shouldn't cause the US to completely shut down the other 98% who are NOT vulnerable. Young are not vulnerable to it. They are more vulnerable to the flew. All data 100% proves this. Yet, we do not shut down for the flew. Regardless of age of deaths, in GA between 6 and 25 die/day from Covid. Let's assume that the rates will go up. Based on the data over the past 90 days, it may get to 30/day--but I doubt it will get above 20 due to the young ages of people getting it. So, if the dire occurs on the lagging deaths, why are we shutting down over 20-30 daily deaths? You understand that almost 5 people (usually young) die each day on GA road. Equally important, there are 1700 car wrecks/day in GA which means dozens EACH DAY get maimed for life and/or hospitalized for weeks/months. If we dropped the speed limit to 25 mph, we would save 90% of these lives and seriously injured. Why don't we? Because CNN is not doing a 24/7 news coverage freaking everyone out to be afraid to drive. This is no different than when there is a plane crash and people fear flying. IF CNN showed 24/7 plane crash video, I guarantee you would not want to fly regardless of the data that shows flying is more safe than driving. Finally, to remind you the hypocricy in all of this, just think of weeks ago if we didn't shelter in place we were murderers and putting man kind at risk. Then, 2 weeks later the protests occurred, but social justice becomes more important than saving man kind and thousands--if not millions--flooded the streets. Doesn't that tell you that this is really about fear mongering. I am 100% certain that the day after the election, suddenly we will all go back to normal. The only good news in all of this is, if I am right which I think I will be, by say 8/1 people will see that deaths have not gone up dramatically and we have herd immunity. While the "wait 2 more weeks for the lagging death" people will still be out there, the broader US community hopefully will realize we can indeed get back to normal for 98% of the country. Imagine going through all the trouble of typing that load of irrelevant, incorrect nonsense and still spelling "flu" wrong multiple times. |
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Post by humphry on Jul 10, 2020 11:14:21 GMT -5
Attaway Sanesoccerdad. "Incorrect nonsense"? Really? NO facts. NO data. Just a typo attack? That's ALL you got? BRAVO my man, BRAVO. Since I'm wrong PLEASE counter w facts or data to prove I'm wrong. Go para by para--it should take you 5 minutes to share the counter data.
Another note, GA has 2800 Covid death. Let's double it for the year and we hit 6000 --which we won't. Way more people are dying and getting maimed in car wrecks. WHY aren't you pushing for a 25 mph speed limit!
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Post by humphry on Jul 10, 2020 11:40:54 GMT -5
According to the CDC, at one of the peak days of death--April 18, there were about 16,000 Covid deaths. 5400 OVER 85; 4400 75-84; 3400 65-74; 2000 55-64; 1000 1-54 years old. 82% over 65 deaths Last week there were just over 2000 deaths with 800 85+; 575 75-84; 430 65-74; 285 55-64; 200 under 55. 90% over 65 deaths (7000 American's a;sp died that day but of NON-Covid related). Yes, let's shut it all down!!! www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex. |
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Post by oraclesfriend on Jul 10, 2020 12:10:10 GMT -5
According to the CDC, at one of the peak days of death--April 18, there were about 16,000 Covid deaths. 5400 OVER 85; 4400 75-84; 3400 65-74; 2000 55-64; 1000 1-54 years old. 82% over 65 deaths Last week there were just over 2000 deaths with 800 85+; 575 75-84; 430 65-74; 285 55-64; 200 under 55. 90% over 65 deaths (7000 American's a;sp died that day but of NON-Covid related). Yes, let's shut it all down!!! www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex. The deaths are overwhelmingly older people however there is good medical EVIDENCE of permanent lung damage (fibrosis) and unknown if permanent or not but likely permanent neurological damage in people who have had the virus but did not die. Not everyone, of course, but even the young healthy have had some permanent harm. This negates your car accident statement about permanent maiming of people. Just because there is no ugly visible scar that doesn't mean permanent damage isn't done. But otherwise I think your car accident analogy is relevant. Some die, some are permanently harmed but most are totally fine after a car accident. This is likely also true with COVID. We do have speed limits and seat belt laws and there are licenses that have to be obtained. There are laws against drunk driving and driving without needed glasses or looking at cell phones in the car. Some states even have driving while drowsy against the law. So while you are correct that there are some concerns about motor vehicle accidents we do try to manage that with reasonable laws and restrictions. We should do the same here with COVID. |
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