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Post by slickdaddy96 on Jul 21, 2020 16:30:15 GMT -5
But you can derive statistical data and models by taking what we have now and extrapolating it out. So say a study takes 5,000 cases and studies every single one of them for a certain time frame. Evaluates each person for long term issues and not and then publishes that finding. We never get full data. We get enough studies eventually to be able to extrapolate those percentages. These stories being published and the studies coming out talking about this stuff are not looking at it versus all cases for a specific time period. I'm not asking for 100% reliability. I'm asking for studies that have data groups of set criteria, and from that once we get several of those and they start agreeing with each other you can extrapolate out relative risk and how common these things happen. We could already have several studies out already on this and maybe there are some that exist, but I am not aware of any at this point. Didn't you say you were an engineer? Sheesh.
You know what happens when you take bad data (as you claim) and extrapolate from it? You get worse data.
Yes that is what happened with these IHME or whatever you call them models predicting the virus. Bad data in bad data out. I'm not saying take one study. I'm saying compare several studies and if you start seeing a trend in the data all agreeing then you can safely extrapolate that out. I hate to tell you epidemiology is nothing but taking a sample and extrapolating for the most part as is most science. No I'm not an engineer, I'm a scientist in a physical/natural science field. I realize an engineer takes science and creates or makes something exact and thus it has to be exact. Science isn't always that exact and doesn't have to be. |
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Post by honeybadger on Jul 21, 2020 16:48:22 GMT -5
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Post by oraclesfriend on Jul 21, 2020 17:09:16 GMT -5
Almost all of these were people wearing the mask who were not infected. They would need to repeat all of the studies with both the ill/infected people wearing masks AND the non infected people wearing masks because that is what we are talking about here. |
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Post by rifle on Jul 21, 2020 17:53:35 GMT -5
When half the nation is obese, it’s understandable that health officials are being cautious.
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Post by mistergrinch on Jul 21, 2020 18:11:44 GMT -5
Well shizat.. apparently masks don't actually work! We should probably tell that to the rest of the developed world who all got it under control using *checks list*.. masks.
Now, about that epidemiologist you pulled out of your imagination.. or somewhere else?
I say you put your money where your mouth is.. next time you go in for a procedure.. no.. next time your KID goes in for a procedure, you should DEMAND that nobody wears masks as they do more harm than good. I mean, you don't want your kid's doctor doing harm to themselves to protect your kid, right? That would be commie socialism!! THINK OF THE CHILDREN!
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Post by footyfan on Jul 21, 2020 18:44:39 GMT -5
Almost all of these were people wearing the mask who were not infected. They would need to repeat all of the studies with both the ill/infected people wearing masks AND the non infected people wearing masks because that is what we are talking about here. The person that wrote the article is not an MD. He is a former physics teacher at University of Ottawa that was fired so he now calls himself a "researcher". His medical writing is not within his PhD area of study. He's a darling of the Infowars types though. Look him up. Funny blurb on his wikipedia page on why he thought he was fired: "Rancourt states the [University of Ottawa] administration's actions in general, and his dismissal in particular, are influenced in part by the Israel lobby and the military-industrial complex." en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_RancourtPlease, bring me more of his "evidence" |
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Post by guest on Jul 21, 2020 19:22:29 GMT -5
First off this is an opinion piece in the commentary section of a Iowa magazine. At least he cites an amazing amount of studies, how refreshing. But I perused a few of the studies and they all seem to be studying whether masks protect the wearer. I thought we all knew that they don’t? They only protect others. There’s this: “ One household trial found that mask wearing coupled with hand sanitiser use reduced secondary transmission of upper respiratory infection” or “ The effectiveness of masks and respirators is likely linked to early, consistent and correct usage.” Or “ Eight of nine retrospective observational studies found that mask and/or respirator use was independently associated with a reduced risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). ” Just goes to show that when you post a link to a study supporting your view, someone else just as passionate as you has another one supporting their diametrically opposing view. |
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Post by slickdaddy96 on Jul 22, 2020 6:45:38 GMT -5
When half the nation is obese, it’s understandable that health officials are being cautious. But the people that are just "obese" and not "morbidly obese" (there is a difference) are not dying in huge numbers. So if you are 20-50 lbs overweight and barely in the obese category it is not the same as people that are 100-200+ pounds overweight and morbidly obese. People that are 100-200+ pounds overweight tend to also have other comorbidities that factor in as well. |
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Post by bogan on Jul 22, 2020 8:21:03 GMT -5
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Post by fridge on Jul 22, 2020 8:43:03 GMT -5
Slickdaddy, I showed similar data Friday and asked someone/anyone to give a data driven (e.g. objective) answer of when we can go to school in person. Crickets. No objective metric offered. I truly think people are so fearful and emotional about this that they want zero deaths zero hospitalizations. This is a virus, no deaths are impossible. Like I said Friday, look at the NE where the death tolls really cannot go any lower--yet most schools are going virtual. (That said, the invitation is still there-- I'd love to know where the goal posts are planted.) Does anyone have data on the day-to-day occupancy percentages for metro atlanta office real estate these days? If that's not available maybe the year-over-year monthly office occupancy averages for April, May and June 2019 to 2020? While we're at it maybe find some projections comparing Q3, 2019 to 2020. Just curious if some of our statisticians can look that up for the group? Alright my friend fridge I'll make a deal with you. How about all virtual teaching gets cancelled and everyone goes back to school full-time, if and when the occupancy percentage in metro area office space returns to say... 90% pre-covid, no better yet 70%!? How about those goal posts or do you need to be more inside the hashes? BTW. Archdioceses of Atlanta doubled down today on going back to school in-person for all level grades. Given the ratios and plan I do see it having good odds for success. I still wouldn't be upset, if dear sister Katherine that teaches Ethics and Humanities, decided to sit the semester out. But we would most certainly miss her!  Inmionion--just saw this. I like the creativity in the argument. However, I am not sure why occupancy rates of office space has a connection of returning to school. It is an apples and oranges analysis. Companies make most decisions (including my employer and we are all back in the office of a mid-sized company) based on profitability and liability assessments. What most companies have learned is that many of their office employees can be productive working remotely. Most execs I have talked to and what I read indicate that Execs are very impressed with the fact that productivity has not been compromised by folks working remotely. In fact, I know 2 different execs who told me they would be downsizing their office space (millions of square feet) because they realized that having white collar employees come to an office environment is not as necessary as they thought and they can save big $ on rent. Further, they do worry about getting sued by employees for exposure to Covid and so, if remote working is effective, there is no need to mess with it. Finally, note that while maybe Home Depot (educated guess) headquarters is having employees work from home, their stores are open. Why are they emphasizing one type of employee over the other? Simple, one can do their job at home and the other must do it in a store. As for live schooling, no one is raising issues about the school district being sued. And, there is no difference between a teacher going to work and a Home Depot employee going to work risk wise. Meanwhile, it is very clear that there is a great downside to kids by not attending school live. The head of the CDC just said he would have no problem sending his grand kids to school. So, I love you offering a data point, but I think we need one that is more apples/apples to the issue. (Thanks for the measured tone btw!!!) |
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Post by ball2futbol on Jul 22, 2020 9:33:47 GMT -5
"Further, they do worry about getting sued by employees for exposure to Covid and so, if remote working is effective, there is no need to mess with it". You could have started and stopped there.
There couldn't be a more apples to apples comparison. Not sure what makes you confident law suits wouldn't follow. That's nearly at the top of lists for public school districts not reopening!
I would say more but its time for the socceruber to get out of dodge.
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Post by bogan on Jul 22, 2020 9:58:10 GMT -5
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Post by atlfutboldad on Jul 22, 2020 10:35:22 GMT -5
For the focus on masks, masks themselves and the science are not the problem whatsoever. Some personality types simply do not concede to the government telling them what to do, period. It could be wearing masks or reporting on their neighbors or locking themselves in their homes or eating broccoli; they do not trust government/authority and its just not how you reach them. And yes, they typically vote red.
For some other personalities, government mandates and things like punitive taxes make sense to them; they typically trust and respect government/authority and typically vote blue.
So call them ignorant or stubborn or whatever you will, but they have to recognize its a personality thing. Knowing this, perhaps mandated policies are not the best idea if you want 100% participation. Personally, I am always surprised by city/county signs of under 100% seatbelt use...simply because seatbelts can and will save your and your families/friends lives (don't care less about the "law" to wear them, its just common sense). If you can convince the influencers (red ones in this case) on the importance of the guidelines, IMO that is how you get across to the people who are fighting the mandates (I'm opposed to mandates, but I'm also not stupid, eg. seatbelts). Even if you have to pay the influencers, IMO that's how you get to closer 100% participation.
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Post by slickdaddy96 on Jul 22, 2020 11:01:09 GMT -5
"Further, they do worry about getting sued by employees for exposure to Covid and so, if remote working is effective, there is no need to mess with it". You could have started and stopped there. There couldn't be a more apples to apples comparison. Not sure what makes you confident law suits wouldn't follow. That's nearly at the top of lists for public school districts not reopening! I would say more but its time for the socceruber to get out of dodge. I'm really not sure how you can sue for catching something somewhere? You can't even prove you caught it from that location. Not to mention there are things called liability waivers that any business or school should make people sign before allowing them on the property. Basically anything outside of gross negligence wouldn't have a leg to stand on lawsuit wise and would be dismissed fairly quickly. |
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Post by fridge on Jul 22, 2020 11:08:24 GMT -5
"Further, they do worry about getting sued by employees for exposure to Covid and so, if remote working is effective, there is no need to mess with it". You could have started and stopped there. There couldn't be a more apples to apples comparison. Not sure what makes you confident law suits wouldn't follow. That's nearly at the top of lists for public school districts not reopening! I would say more but its time for the socceruber to get out of dodge. But the issue we are focusing on is if it is "safe to return to school" not whether someone might sue someone. You can't pivot on me now! I think the suing issues are silly. There is no way anyone could prove where they got Covid unless they 100% quarantined by themselves for a 30 days and went to work for one day and then returned to quarantine--but tested positive. Too many variables to pin it to "that" exposure. Ok, get back to the real world and enjoy your day. |
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Post by mistergrinch on Jul 22, 2020 12:20:03 GMT -5
For the focus on masks, masks themselves and the science are not the problem whatsoever. Some personality types simply do not concede to the government telling them what to do, period. It could be wearing masks or reporting on their neighbors or locking themselves in their homes or eating broccoli; they do not trust government/authority and its just not how you reach them. And yes, they typically vote red. For some other personalities, government mandates and things like punitive taxes make sense to them; they typically trust and respect government/authority and typically vote blue. So call them ignorant or stubborn or whatever you will, but they have to recognize its a personality thing. Knowing this, perhaps mandated policies are not the best idea if you want 100% participation. Personally, I am always surprised by city/county signs of under 100% seatbelt use...simply because seatbelts can and will save your and your families/friends lives (don't care less about the "law" to wear them, its just common sense). If you can convince the influencers (red ones in this case) on the importance of the guidelines, IMO that is how you get across to the people who are fighting the mandates (I'm opposed to mandates, but I'm also not stupid, eg. seatbelts). Even if you have to pay the influencers, IMO that's how you get to closer 100% participation. The mandates do seem to work, though. Stores are mandating it.. and surprise, people are wearing masks in FAR greater numbers in those stores. Not 100%, but WAY more than I saw before.
My local Publix/Kroger were maybe 30% masks before.. now closer to 90% after the stores are demanding it.
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Post by guest on Jul 22, 2020 13:00:47 GMT -5
I just came back from Texas, not really known as a progressive epicenter (not including Austin, et al). They had just implemented the mask mandate there and I was surprised how many people complied. Big ole ten gallon hat wearin dudes getting out of their monster trucks to go into the bar -> Mask.
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Post by guest on Jul 22, 2020 13:09:42 GMT -5
"Further, they do worry about getting sued by employees for exposure to Covid and so, if remote working is effective, there is no need to mess with it". You could have started and stopped there. There couldn't be a more apples to apples comparison. Not sure what makes you confident law suits wouldn't follow. That's nearly at the top of lists for public school districts not reopening! I would say more but its time for the socceruber to get out of dodge. But the issue we are focusing on is if it is "safe to return to school" not whether someone might sue someone. You can't pivot on me now! I think the suing issues are silly. There is no way anyone could prove where they got Covid unless they 100% quarantined by themselves for a 30 days and went to work for one day and then returned to quarantine--but tested positive. Too many variables to pin it to "that" exposure. Ok, get back to the real world and enjoy your day. First off, you really don’t have to do a lot of proving anymore. Can you convince a jury of generally progressive people to ‘stick it to the man’? Probably. Second, there would more than likely be a cash settlement, which is really the object of most litigation these days. I can envision a scenario. You work in a warehouse. 60 out of 100 co-workers test positive. You are forced to come in to work Sat because you’re behind since you’re so short staffed. You get Covid. You don’t have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt. Just a preponderance of evidence. Is it likely you got it at work, which has other positive cases? Easy case. Especially since juries today are ‘out for justice’. I can already see the legal ads now. “Got the virus? Just hire us!” Or how about “Have a job that got you sick? We’ll get you a wad of cash that’s thick!” |
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Post by atlfutboldad on Jul 22, 2020 13:52:28 GMT -5
For the focus on masks, masks themselves and the science are not the problem whatsoever. Some personality types simply do not concede to the government telling them what to do, period. It could be wearing masks or reporting on their neighbors or locking themselves in their homes or eating broccoli; they do not trust government/authority and its just not how you reach them. And yes, they typically vote red. For some other personalities, government mandates and things like punitive taxes make sense to them; they typically trust and respect government/authority and typically vote blue. So call them ignorant or stubborn or whatever you will, but they have to recognize its a personality thing. Knowing this, perhaps mandated policies are not the best idea if you want 100% participation. Personally, I am always surprised by city/county signs of under 100% seatbelt use...simply because seatbelts can and will save your and your families/friends lives (don't care less about the "law" to wear them, its just common sense). If you can convince the influencers (red ones in this case) on the importance of the guidelines, IMO that is how you get across to the people who are fighting the mandates (I'm opposed to mandates, but I'm also not stupid, eg. seatbelts). Even if you have to pay the influencers, IMO that's how you get to closer 100% participation. The mandates do seem to work, though. Stores are mandating it.. and surprise, people are wearing masks in FAR greater numbers in those stores. Not 100%, but WAY more than I saw before.
My local Publix/Kroger were maybe 30% masks before.. now closer to 90% after the stores are demanding it.
A store mandating a mask to use their facilities vs being accosted for taking a walk without a mask are huge differences (even the threat of such). Stores/restaurants can mandate "no shoes, no shirt, no service" and people will comply, why? Simple, because in order to use their services you have to comply with their rules. That doesn't mean that some of these people won't leave a restaurant and then drive around in their trucks or jeeps with their shirts and shoes off for whatever reason. You can just as easily NOT use their services, hence you don't need to comply with their rules.
Meanwhile the mask mandates are "In order to exist, you must comply, or your freedom will be taken."
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Post by mistergrinch on Jul 22, 2020 13:59:15 GMT -5
The mandates do seem to work, though. Stores are mandating it.. and surprise, people are wearing masks in FAR greater numbers in those stores. Not 100%, but WAY more than I saw before.
My local Publix/Kroger were maybe 30% masks before.. now closer to 90% after the stores are demanding it.
A store mandating a mask to use their facilities vs being accosted for taking a walk without a mask are huge differences (even the threat of such). Stores/restaurants can mandate "no shoes, no shirt, no service" and people will comply, why? Simple, because in order to use their services you have to comply with their rules. That doesn't mean that some of these people won't leave a restaurant and then drive around in their trucks or jeeps with their shirts and shoes off for whatever reason. You can just as easily NOT use their services, hence you don't need to comply with their rules.
Meanwhile the mask mandates are "In order to exist, you must comply, or your freedom will be taken."
eh.. not sure how many face arrest.. seems to be mostly warnings and tickets at worst. If it increases the use.. then it's helping.
Besides.. businesses are likely the places where it's needed. Far more than 'walking down the street'.
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Post by honeybadger on Jul 22, 2020 16:17:50 GMT -5
Well shizat.. apparently masks don't actually work! We should probably tell that to the rest of the developed world who all got it under control using *checks list*.. masks.
Now, about that epidemiologist you pulled out of your imagination.. or somewhere else?
I say you put your money where your mouth is.. next time you go in for a procedure.. no.. next time your KID goes in for a procedure, you should DEMAND that nobody wears masks as they do more harm than good. I mean, you don't want your kid's doctor doing harm to themselves to protect your kid, right? That would be commie socialism!! THINK OF THE CHILDREN!
Well, at least according to the science, some masks DON'T work. You have no understanding of what I just said about masks. Get images of Rachel Maddow out of your mind, quit making things personal with people's own children and actually listen -and try not to sound like such a big as*wipe when you write. A surgical mask is used because it keeps the DOCTORS' oatients blood and fluids from getting into their faces and large germ droplets germs from getting into the person's anatomy. It does NOT stop tinier particles like a covid virum from coming from the person TO the doctor. You got that? Of COURSE the doctor should wear a mask when operating. Don't be an idiot with the emotional "your child thing" From the MAYO clinic: (But I'm sure you know more than the Mayo Clinic does). Surgical masks"Also called a medical mask, a surgical mask is a loose-fitting disposable mask that protects the wearer's nose and mouth from contact with droplets, splashes and sprays that may contain germs. A surgical mask also filters out large particles in the air. Surgical masks may protect others by reducing exposure to the saliva and respiratory secretions of the mask wearer. At this time, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has not approved any type of surgical mask specifically for protection against the coronavirus"N95"N95 masks Actually a type of respirator, an N95 mask offers more protection than a surgical mask does because it can filter out both large and small particles when the wearer inhales. As the name indicates, the mask is designed to block 95% of very small particles. Some N95 masks have valves that make them easier to breathe through. With this type of mask, unfiltered air is released when the wearer exhales.Health care providers must be trained and pass a fit test to confirm a proper seal before using an N95 respirator in the workplace. Like surgical masks, N95 masks are intended to be disposable. However, researchers are testing ways to disinfect N95 masks so they can be reused. Some N95 masks, and even some cloth masks, have one-way valves that make them easier to breathe through. But because the valve releases unfiltered air when the wearer breathes out, this type of mask doesn't prevent the wearer from spreading the virus. For this reason, some places have banned them."(HEY Hot shot, READ THAT LAST PARAGRAPH OF N95 MASKS AGAIN REALLY SLOWLY SO IT WILL SINK IN FOR YOU). Cloth masks"A cloth mask is intended to trap droplets that are released when the wearer talks, coughs or sneezes. Asking everyone to wear cloth masks can help reduce the spread of the virus by people who have COVID-19 but don't realize it"..........................................it goes on to say that in order for cloth masks to work there are so many things you have to do to make sure. I was wearing one in Kroger this morning, and witnessed everyone, myself inlcluded, soing things out of habit that make these masks almost pointless. Everyone touches their masks with their hands. We fidget with them, we will pull them down and the pull them back on. We lay them on dirty surfaces and reuse. Here is your biggest problem grinch, you can't let other people simply disagree with your opinion without getting personal with it. Here's the Mayo Clinic link if you need the source: www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449You can't compare one country to every country in the world. We all have different rates of underlying health issues which affect deaths. We have 330 MILLION people compared to some countries that may be more spread out, etc. Amd don't forget genious, it's been proven that the numbers in Florida have been cooked too. So we don't even know the true numbers. Finally, about your point about "other developed countries doing better". Who told you that, Chris Hayes or Don Lemon? But, assuming you trust Johns Hopkins University, here is a link to two graphs that define death rate two weays. And gee, um, wouldn't you know, golly, we are doing much better than many of the "developed" countries in Europe. The other thing you will see in the MAYO clinic, there are several things ALONG with a cloth mask that can help REDUCE CV19. coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortalityBut of course, Mayo and JHU wouldn't come close to knowing as much as you. In the end, either go to soccer games this fall or don't--I don't care. But if someone has a different opinion and presents, relax and take a valium. I do wear masks where mandated (I think they are just for show and make people feel better but what the heck, I get to breath in less Oxygen for 30 minutes but that's ok) but where it's not mandated, I'll borrow a line I've heard my whole life from progressives: "It's my body, my choice". |
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Post by soccermaxx72 on Jul 22, 2020 16:39:35 GMT -5
It’s time for all the Karens to get back in the classroom and teach. Mandate masks at school for faculty and kids and let’s go. If student or teacher can’t wear mask then they stay digital
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Post by footyfan on Jul 22, 2020 18:08:44 GMT -5
It’s time for all the Karens to get back in the classroom and teach. Mandate masks at school for faculty and kids and let’s go. If student or teacher can’t wear mask then they stay digital Not sure I'd want a Karen around my children. Hopefully none of them are teachers. |
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Post by honeybadger on Jul 22, 2020 19:33:59 GMT -5
Almost all of these were people wearing the mask who were not infected. They would need to repeat all of the studies with both the ill/infected people wearing masks AND the non infected people wearing masks because that is what we are talking about here. You know I usually agree with you:)  but I respectfully disagree here. It's based on the smallest virum that can go through these masks that can be the problem. |
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Post by honeybadger on Jul 22, 2020 19:39:27 GMT -5
It’s time for all the Karens to get back in the classroom and teach. Mandate masks at school for faculty and kids and let’s go. If student or teacher can’t wear mask then they stay digital Amen!! I'm a teacher.......let's get back to work. |
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Post by bogan on Jul 22, 2020 20:07:26 GMT -5
It’s time for all the Karens to get back in the classroom and teach. Mandate masks at school for faculty and kids and let’s go. If student or teacher can’t wear mask then they stay digital Amen!! I'm a teacher.......let's get back to work. Are you getting to go back in your county? Or will you be virtual or Hybrid? |
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Post by GameOfThrow-ins on Jul 22, 2020 21:22:09 GMT -5
Kemp wants statewide school start date of 9/8.
Attempt to give the numbers more time to retreat and push for F2F?
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Post by soccerspin on Jul 22, 2020 21:44:00 GMT -5
Kemp wants statewide school start date of 9/8. Attempt to give the numbers more time to retreat and push for F2F? Nooooo!!! I’m for options (F2F or virtual) but we need school to start in August. The two week delay is already painful enough. The local districts need to decide what’s best for their communities, not the state. |
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Post by GameOfThrow-ins on Jul 22, 2020 22:41:38 GMT -5
Also, the current trend in reporting “positivity” percentages is about to be a useless statistic. FDA-approved home tests with results in 15 minutes are already here and they’ll be getting faster, more affordable (about $35 per test right now), and easier to obtain. They are being used at home and in office settings and will not be reported. We already use them. www.camtech.org/assets/CamtechIgMIgGRapidKit.pdf |
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Post by slickdaddy96 on Jul 23, 2020 6:46:06 GMT -5
Also, the current trend in reporting “positivity” percentages is about to be a useless statistic. FDA-approved home tests with results in 15 minutes are already here and they’ll be getting faster, more affordable (about $35 per test right now), and easier to obtain. They are being used at home and in office settings and will not be reported. We already use them. www.camtech.org/assets/CamtechIgMIgGRapidKit.pdfThat is not a Covid-19 test. That is a test for the antibodies if you ever had it not if you have it right now. That doesn't test for the physical virus. IgG and IgM are antibodies produced by the body. I've had one of those through my doctor months ago and tested negative but that may not mean that I didn't have it since it seems in some of the population the antibodies fade within a few months. The reason why they are not being reported is because they aren't tests for covid-19 the virus. If they can come up with a 15 minute test that actually looks for the virus that is for in-home that would be a game changer. That does not exist at this point. |
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but I respectfully disagree here. It's based on the smallest virum that can go through these masks that can be the problem. 